(CNN) On the night before Election Day, political polls are indicating that the already tight presidential race between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush might be growing even tighter.
Haley Barbour is a former Republican National Committee chairman and Todd Webster is deputy communications director for the Gore campaign.
Chat Moderator: Welcome back to the Crossfire chat room, Haley Barbour!
Haley Barbour: Thank you!
Chat Moderator: Which battleground states seem to have moved into the Bush column?
Haley Barbour: Well, Bush is now winning most of the states between the coasts, having picked up West Virginia, probably Tennessee and Arkansas. At the end of the day, I expect Bush will carry Florida and Michigan, while Gore seems to be ahead in Pennsylvania and Illinois. I'd also give Bush the edge in Missouri and Wisconsin, but Gore in Minnesota and Iowa. There are still a lot of close states.
Comment from MTD: Zogby now has Bush down one point in California. With the huge momentum he has there, he cannot lose the state.
Haley Barbour: Gore has slid, and Bush has surged in California. Gore must win it, and I think he remains a small favorite. Interestingly, Gore has himself in a position where he must carry Florida, as well. Gore is very unlikely to carry Florida but probably has a small advantage in California.
Question from Bushwins: Mr. Barbour, do you think the polls are accurate?
Haley Barbour: There are so many polls this year, with such differing results, that a couple of them HAVE to be accurate! There is such a wide discrepancy, that most of them will be off a few points; however, the aggregate of the seven or eight national tracking polls give Bush a lead of three or four points, and that cumulative finding is probably close to the truth.
Question from Eddieg: What is the current projection for Ohio?
Haley Barbour: Governor Bush has led in Ohio with pretty consistent leads for several weeks. While he certainly doesn't take it for granted, Governor Bush is expected by most people to carry Ohio by a several point margin. In fact, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, southern Illinois and western Pennsylvania, all of which have significant coal economies, are areas of great weakness for Gore, because Gore seems to see no place for coal in our country's energy future.
Question from Raj1: Haley, what do you think are the chances of Bush winning popular but Gore winning Electorate?
Haley Barbour: Obviously, it's not impossible, but it's quite unlikely. There is a reason why that scenario has not happened in the last 27 presidential elections in a row, including some elections that will be closer than this one in terms of the popular vote.
Question from Adam: What do you predict as the result in Pennsylvania, which is my home state?
Haley Barbour: Senator Santorum will be reelected. Republicans will break even or gain in Congress. The presidential election will be very close. If you held a gun to my head, I would give the slightest edge to Gore because of his strength in southeastern Pennsylvania. But Bush is so much stronger in western Pennsylvania, and the enthusiasm of Republicans in the rural areas of the state, and particularly in the T, may overcome Gore's southeastern Pennsylvania advantage. It will be close.
Question from Chicago: Do you think it will hurt Bush to be campaigning in states like Tennessee and Arkansas on the day before the election? Is he taking Florida and Pennsylvania for granted?
Haley Barbour: No, he campaigned four or five stops in Florida over the weekend. He's campaigned in Pennsylvania on more than a weekly basis. However, a visit to a smaller state, such as Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee or Arkansas, is likely to have more impact than one to the largest states at the end of the campaign.
All of the states mentioned are great opportunities for Bush and would give him more margin for error if he were to lose two of the states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Bush carries two of them, he's president. But he can lose two of them and still be elected by winning enough of these small states that have voted for Clinton the last two elections.
Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today, Haley Barbour.
Haley Barbour: Thank you! Goodnight.
Chat Moderator: Welcome to the Crossfire chat room, Todd Webster.
Todd Webster: Thank you for having me!
Chat Moderator: Several pundits believe that Vice President Gore should be at least ten points higher in the polls, considering the strength of the economy. Why isn't Gore doing better?
Todd Webster: We think that Al Gore is doing very, very well. We're confident that we'll win tomorrow and are very excited about that. More importantly, if you look at the campaigns these two candidates have run, Al Gore has focused on the issues that Americans are concerned with and a big choice that we face as a country.
Question from Siscokid: Todd, will Gore take Arkansas?
Todd Webster: Well, we certainly hope so! Arkansas is a battleground state. There are a number of battlegrounds around the country, and he has been working very, very hard for a number or these states. We've devoted time and resources there, and expect Arkansas will go for Gore.
Question from Billybob: How can Gore lose his home state?
Todd Webster: We don't think that Gore will lose his home state. He's never lost an election in Tennessee. It's a battleground state. It has a Republican governor and two Republican senators, but we believe that with a tremendous get-out-the-vote effort and a chance to send one of their own to the White House, voters in Tennessee will vote for Al Gore.
Question from Robt919: Why didnt Gore let Clinton be more active in the campaign? If Clinton could run again, he would win. Why turn away that kind of help?
Todd Webster: Well, Al Gore said at the convention that he is running as his own man, that this election is about the future and it's about Al Gore's vision of how we can improve education, expand access to healthcare and continue our economic prosperity.
Our prosperity is really on the ballot tomorrow because, while Al Gore offers middle-class tax cuts and a responsible fiscal plan that continues to pay down the debt and will eliminate the federal debt by the year 2012, George Bush is pushing a massive tax cut for the wealthy that John McCain has said is too large and that gives half of the benefits to people making over $300,000 a year.
Question from Dontbefooled: What do you say to people who are thinking of voting for Nader?
Todd Webster: We believe that voters who are concerned with consumer protections, who are concerned with environmental issues and who are concerned about a woman's right to choose will vote for Al Gore.
Question from MTD: Why do you think Bush has pulled even with Gore in California -- according the Zogby?
Todd Webster: The Zogby Poll was a private poll taken for a Republican Senate candidate, that all other polls in California show Gore in a strong position. And if you believe that California voters are going to elect a pro-life, pro-polluter and pro-gun Texas oilman, then I've got some oceanfront property in Arizona to sell to you.
Question from HappyLiberal: Todd, is it over if Florida swings to Gore in a big way?
Todd Webster: No Republican has won without Florida in more years than I can remember. Without Florida, George Bush has a very remote chance. But we believe that because of the issues in Florida -- people concerned with Social Security, with a prescription drug benefit for all of our seniors -- that Florida voters, like other voters around the country, will come out big for Al Gore.
Question from Samsel: Todd, it seems that you give George Bush little, if any credit. Don't you think it will be a close race?
Todd Webster: We believe it will be a very close race. It has been a close race. But unlike the Bush campaign, who are pulling out the champagne glasses, here in Nashville we are working very hard right through Election Day, talking about Al Gore and his vision and his issues, like how to continue our economic prosperity, how to improve education and how to improve access to healthcare.
Question from Va4bush: Why do you think the Republicans are more energized?
Todd Webster: I don't think the Republicans are more energized. I think Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans see Tuesday's election as a big choice between two vastly different economic plans. One plan was tried in the 1980s and early '90s and was called by President Bush "voodoo economics." It led to a $4.5 trillion national debt. Al Gore's plan is to continue to balance the budget, to pay down the debt and provide middle-class tax cuts for the folks who need it the most.
Chat Moderator: Which battleground states do you think will fall into the Gore column tomorrow?
Todd Webster: We believe that they all will. We're running very strong in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Illinois, in California and in New York, and somewhat surprisingly, given that his brother is the governor, in Florida.
Chat Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts for us?
Todd Webster: Thank you all for being here, and don't forget to vote tomorrow.
Haley Barbour and Todd Webster joined the Crossfire Chat via telephone from Washington, D.C. and Nashville, Tennessee, respectively. CNN.com provided a typist for both Mr. Barbour and Mr. Webster. The above is an edited transcript of that chat, which took place on Monday, November 6, 2000. |